02 Jun

The Continuation Bet

Also known as the ‘second bullet’ for most poker players, continuation bets are and should indeed be an integral part of a successful poker player’s arsenal.

Before we go into strategic implications though, let’s see what a continuation bet really is. You’re in the BB with a pair of jacks, and you decide to hold your ground. That starting hand is good, so it would be absolutely justified that you defend your BB on it. You raise to about three time the BB to further improve the odds on your hand, and everyone folds except two callers – who both have position on you. The flop comes 7 Q 2 and you become fully aware that you may no longer be in possession of the best hand at the table. Having committed quite a few chips already, and being the first to act, your situation is interesting. If you decide to fire that second bullet and indeed make a good size raise again, and both your opponents fold to you, you’ll have pulled off a successful continuation bet.

Why is the continuation bet that important?

Let’s take a closer look at the above presented situation, after the flop. Being out of position, and with a possibly beaten hand, checking is the worst thing you can do. Checking is a sure sign of weakness, and in the above situation is the equivalent of giving up the pot as it is because: if one of the other two players happens to have flopped a higher pair than yours, he’ll be the one to raise. If none of the other two players made a hand, one of them still might decide to take a jab at the pot, in which case you’ll have to let it go. If none of them made hands, and they both check, you’ve given two guys on high cards the possibility to outdraw you on the turn or the river.

The continuation bet will achieve one of two things.  

The best case scenario is that both your opponents fold to your bet, which means your second bullet has indeed achieved its goal (in some online poker games a third bullet is in order too sometimes). The worst case scenario is that they call your bet, or even raise it. While their calling it can mean that they’re simply looking to complete a draw and that they have nothing, a raise is a pretty straightforward tell that maybe you should give it up. Now then, if you’ve made a pot-size bet, you’re in pretty deep trouble if you get a raiser, because you’ll be giving up one hell of a pot equity by folding, and you will be forced to fold. In order to make your continuation bets successful, you need to set its goals straight: what exactly are you trying to achieve with your ‘second bullet’? Are you trying to make others fold the best hand? Because of you’re aiming for that, you’re not making a continuation bet, you are in fact bluffing.

The aim of a continuation bet is to drive out those who would’ve checked to possibly outdraw you on a later street. You do not want to pot-commit yourself via your continuation bet. What this tells us is that the eventual success of the continuation bet is in its size. You need a bet just big enough to drive out those who may otherwise check, but not a single chip bigger, because you want to be able to make a clean getaway if you discover that someone is looking to trap you. What you want to achieve with your continuation bet is to increase your pot odds by making a bet as small as possible to increase your potential winnings. Generally a half-pot size bet should do it, but the whole thing depends on a bunch of circumstances, amongst which the most important are the reads that you make on your opponents.

Tight passive players require smaller continuation bets to drive out, risk-takers cost much more to intimidate. Successful continuation bets depend on several other factors too. Do not abuse them, or you’ll be read and your own weapon will be turned against you. If you see that the flop is highly likely to have given your opponent a better hand, do not venture into firing that second bullet (if, in the above presented example the flop were 7 Q K or 7 Q A).

Edges that you can secure through continuation bet-like maneuvers are hard-earned ones. You need to take full advantage of them of course, but the battle for the EV shouldn’t stop there. There are edges, like rakeback, that are much easier to secure. Keep an open mind and look for your EV inducing edges everywhere. Not seeing the woods from the trees is not characteristic of a successful poker player. 

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